Sunday, March 15, 2009

You have to admire the audacity of the Israelis. News is coming out about the extent of their air-strikes in Iran, but it looks like they hit every nuclear facility that anybody has ever heard of: Arak, Isfahan, Natanz, Bushehr. I thought everyone agreed Bushehr (the plant being run by the Russians), was civilian.

There are two big issues that I don’t think the news is doing enough to cover about this: 1) The reports of civilian casualties in Isfahan. It sounds like the Israelis hit something they weren’t expecting or released something that wasn’t supposed to be there. Unlike FOX News, I’m not writing off BBC reports of radiation poisoning. Isfahan is a big city and a pretty big cultural center. I don’t think the Israelis nuked the place (even a little bunker buster), but it sure doesn’t look good.
2) What was the US involvement in this. Nobody has said it yet, but there is no way that several flights of Israeli jets made it to Iran and back without going though effectively US-controlled airspace in Iraq and/or the Gulf. We knew this was coming. Which means Bush greenlighted it. Which means we will be blamed as much as the Israelis.

There hasn’t been a reaction from Iran yet except a lot of yelling. Others are more expert in Mid-East predicting, but Iran’s options as I see them are:
Sit-down and take it – not likely
Proportional attacks on Israel – missiles? boats in the Med? Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon? Terrorist attacks?
Open war on Israel – See above, but all at once without an end or breathing space.
Proportional attacks on the US in Afghanistan and Iraq – ’nuff said.
Economic war on the US – shutting down the Gulf and straits of Hormuz to oil tankers.
Terrorist attacks on Israeli (and US) interests outside the Mid-East – Embassies and airliners and ships and businesses.

None of this is good ladies and gentlemen. And you thought $6.60 a gallon for gas was high.